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August 09 2017

The reason we will get several more seasons of AOS. Agents of SHIELD is one of the most popular shows in the world.

I hope the studio sees it this way too. I heard they cut the budget a bit.
The high position on this list didn't help Prison Break. But maybe this is because the chatter was high in the beginning and maybe trailed off later.

I wonder how exactly these numbers are balanced. "social media chatter, blogging, and illegal pirating, among other factors" doesn't translate well into money. I was pretty bummed, that my favourite TV-reviewer on youtube dropped Agents of SHIELD, because of the low interest.

In any case, 1 more season or 3, I just hope it delivers creatively and can finish on its own terms.

The current post title here is speculative. There are many reasons a show could not get renewed despite its apparent popularity. I'd change the post title to the current description for the sake of accuracy.

[ edited by libradude on 2017-08-09 09:22 ]

After reading the above article my first thought was huh ! I wonder what IrrationaliTV would say about that ? And then I saw
who posted it and had a serious bout of giggles.

I concede the point but I would caution everyone to never underestimate the power of human stupidity. One other item of note;

Disney is pulling out of Netflix in 2019. I have no idea if that means they also remove their Marvel content or not. In any case
it might mean that they shift AoS to the new service IF that service is going to do TV shows.

Not sure that Disney's intent to start their own streaming service is likely to affect AoS since they already have a mouse-owned distribution channel in ABC. Hulu has recently been advertising the new availability of lots of Disney movies (Hulu being part-owned by ABC) so at the moment it does not look like Disney is planning to move all of their content to their own service. They're just not renewing distribution via Netflix.

Does anyone know the particulars of Netflix's rights to other Marvel content (Daredevil, Luke Cage, etc.)? I believe they fronted at least some of the money for series development so they should retain some rights, right?

Not sure that Disney's intent to start their own streaming service is likely to affect AoS since they already have a mouse-
owned distribution channel in ABC.


The problem with AoS is that it occupies scarce and valuable space on ABC and has been a less than stellar performer while
being pretty solid overseas. If AoS was a first release streamed entity that problem goes away.

Hulu has recently been advertising the new availability of lots of Disney movies (Hulu being part-owned by ABC) so at the
moment it does not look like Disney is planning to move all of their content to their own service. They're just not renewing
distribution via Netflix.


AoS is just a little too high cost for Hulu imo but you never know.

Does anyone know the particulars of Netflix's rights to other Marvel content (Daredevil, Luke Cage, etc.)?

The original contract ends with the Defenders so it depends on whether or not either party had any contractual options to extend
or to withdraw. No real knowledge as to what that might be but my guess is that Disney can leave if they want.

Bob Iger said on CNBC last night that the Marvel Netflix shows will stay at Netflix after 2019, and that the rights to the Marvel and LucasFilm movie studio films might well stay with Netflix or another subscription service that is not Disney's new venture, which will focus on the Disney/Pixar movie and TV library.

http://io9.gizmodo.com/disney-is-planning-to-pull-all-of-its-movies-from-netfl-1797653277

Yes, I was being cheeky with the title. Isn't that what the cool kids do now? It could have read, "Worldwide popularity of AOS measured in several different ways implies why AOS is still a very strong property for ABC/Marvel even though Whedonesque members have been predicting its impending doom since season 1."

I thought that was less catchy. :)

The Defenders series of shows on Netflix are co-productions between Marvel and Netflix. Those shows aren't moving off of Netflix since Netflix owns at least 50% of them. Highly unlikely you will ever see those shows on a different service.

I expected Disney to buy Netflix so what do I know?

OK its clearer now. Thx IrrationaliTV & Agent. I think that its pretty clear that this the new Disney service is not going to be aimed at all niches. It sounds very kid and family oriented.

Popularity is only tangentially related to what gets on, or stays on, the air.

I go back to the "flickering candle theory of television programing" (Steven L Sears).

If an accountant convinces the network they can make one penny more profit
by cheaply filming a candle flickering on an empty stage that one person will watch;
than by creating an expensive, multi-Emmy winning, production of the greatest drama
in history that a hundred million people will watch. The network will go with the candle.

I dunno IrrationalTV I like the orginal title better. :P

I was also convinced Disney was going to buy Netflix. I assume those negotiations broke down and/or the investment bankers explained to Bob Iger that the cost/risk was going to be absurd (I believe Netflix is $20 billion in debt).

Yes, RobynH, you are absolutely right. That popularity has to be monetized in order to be considered successful. I am pretty confident that Disney is one of the best companies in the world at squeezing every single penny possible out of popular and beloved IP. They know what they are doing. They are making serious bank off of AOS.

I really found this listicle fascinating because we don't often see global popularity aggregated like this and the (substantial) revenue ABC Studios receives from global sales of the show isn't public info the way (extremely misleading and outdated) live and same day US only Nielsen ratings are public and inescapable. I would bet that the international sales of AOS linear (regular TV) and non-linear (streaming and other new tech) more than pays for its entire production cost and that AOS ends up being very profitable even though it may not get Scandal-size ratings and attention in the US.

Prison Break is HUGE outside the US. The US market almost doesn't matter. It barely mattered in its initial run it was so wildly popular outside the US. This is also how all the CW shows are successful and they keep adding more and more shows. Just like big tentpole movies, the international market is at the very least 50% of the equation. I remember the days when fans and viewers outside the US used to bitterly complain that programming decisions completely ignored their value as viewers. Those days are gone. Up to each person to decide whether that is a good or bad thing for themselves.

They got the description of the show wrong: "A black ops group tries to contain mutant threats to humankind."

No mutants in the MCU and the Inhumans and other superpower ain't always a threat to humankind (sometimes it's the other way around). While Inhumans have been a huge part of Seasons 2 through 4, they aren't always what the show is about.

If the show keeps reinventing itself like it's doing, it should keep my attention (especially if they retain most of the main cast -- if they switch out too many of the familiar faces, I'd rather they ended it and started something new than made it an anthology). But I kinda want an ending. Five seasons is great. It depends what they have in store.


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